Qualified Pitchers with an ERA Under 3.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Japanese pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers, posted a 2.53 ERA over 185 innings during this year's regular season. Last year, he threw 178 2/3 innings with a 2.49 ERA. In other words, he has met the qualifying threshold for innings pitched and maintained an ERA under 3.00 for two consecutive years. I would like to explain just how remarkable this achievement is and why it deserves special recognition.
Yamamoto is the first Japanese pitcher in Major League Baseball history to meet the qualifying innings threshold and maintain an ERA under 3.00 for two consecutive years. It may come as a surprise, but it is a fact—not even Hideo Nomo, Yu Darvish, Hiroki Kuroda, Masahiro Tanaka, or Shohei Ohtani have accomplished this.
Some readers might conclude from this that "Japanese pitchers aren't actually that impressive." To those people, I have a question:
"Can you name any other MLB pitchers who, like Yamamoto, met the qualifying innings threshold and maintained an ERA under 3.00 in both this year and last year?"
I suspect those who thought Japanese pitchers weren't particularly impressive might be surprised by the answer: there is only one—Cristopher Sánchez. (Note that, like Yamamoto, Sanchez did not achieve this the year before last, so his streak does not extend to three consecutive years.)
Looking at the modern era of Major League Baseball—which began in the 20th century—there have been quite a few pitchers who achieved this for three or more consecutive years (if we look beyond just the last three-year window). Here are some examples:
Cy Young 1901-1905 (5 consecutive years)
1907-1910 (4 consecutive years)
Christy Mathewson 1901-1913 (13 consecutive years)
Walter Johnson 1908-1919 (12 consecutive years)
Pete Alexander 1911-1917 (7 consecutive years)
Whitey Ford 1954-1958 (5 consecutive years)
1962-1964 (3 consecutive years)
Sandy Koufax 1962-1966 (5 consecutive years)
Tom Seaver 1967-1973 (7 consecutive years)
Greg Maddux 1992-1998 (7 consecutive years)
Pedro Martínez 1997-2000 (4 consecutive years)
Randy Johnson 1999-2002 (4 consecutive years)
Clayton Kershaw 2009-2015 (7 consecutive years)
Max Scherzer 2015-2019 (5 consecutive years)
Gerrit Cole 2018-2020 (3 consecutive years)
Jacob deGrom 2018-2020 (3 consecutive years)
However, since 2020, not a single pitcher has managed to achieve this for three consecutive years. In fact, aside from Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Cristopher Sánchez, only four other pitchers have managed to do so for two consecutive years.
Zack Wheeler 2020-2021
Julio Urias 2021-2022
Corbin Burnes 2021-2022
Tarik Skubal 2024-2025
Up until 2020, quite a few pitchers managed to achieve this for three or more consecutive years, and many others did so for two years in a row. Since 2020, however, no one has achieved it for three consecutive years, and only six pitchers have managed it for two consecutive years.
Why has this shift occurred? Is it because pitchers of exceptional talent have stopped emerging? I don't believe that's the case. It seems clear to me that pitchers with outstanding ability are still appearing, just as they did in the past.
So, what is the reason? I suspect it is the result of several intertwined factors.
For instance, while only starting pitchers are typically in a position to reach the required number of innings pitched to qualify for ERA titles, the number of complete games by starters has been at an all-time low in Major League Baseball every year since 2021—a trend that has now persisted for six consecutive years, from 2021 to 2026, an unprecedented occurrence in MLB history. This suggests that even among starters who do not record complete games, the number of innings pitched per outing is shrinking, while the workload for relief pitchers is on the rise. Consequently, even if a starting pitcher allows the same number of runs, their ERA will inevitably suffer. For example, if starters pitched through seven innings and allow two runs, their ERA is 2.57; however, if they are replaced by a reliever after six innings, that ERA rises to 3.0, and if they are pulled after just five innings, it climbs to 3.6.
Furthermore, as hitters have enhanced their offensive capabilities—partly driven by the "fly-ball revolution"—pitchers are now forced to increase the velocity of their four-seam fastballs and master a wider array of breaking pitches just to remain competitive. This places an immense strain on the body, leading to rapid fatigue and an increased susceptibility to injuries. It is not uncommon for pitchers to require major procedures, such as Tommy John surgery, followed by long periods of rehabilitation. Given these circumstances, it has become exceptionally difficult for starting pitchers to consistently pitch a high number of innings while maintaining strong performance year after year.
I am not certain if my assessment is correct. What do you think?
It will be interesting to see how Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Cristopher Sánchez perform next year. As of now, they are the only two players with the potential to achieve this for three consecutive years.
(If I've made a mistake or left out something important, please let me know. I'll try to make corrections or additions.)