The "mystery" of .400 hitters

Since 1901, when the modern era of Major League Baseball began, eight players have achieved a batting average of .400 a total of 13 times. However, since Ted Williams' batting average of .406 in 1941, no one has achieved it in the major leagues.

Major League Baseball fans are always waiting for the birth of a new .400 hitter. And when a player who seems like he could do it appears, they make a big fuss, but in the end they are disappointed. For example, Rod Carew in 1977, George Brett in 1980, Tony Gwynn in 1994, etc. So why is it so hard to find a new .400 hitter?  There are various theories. Players' salaries have increased, so they no longer have a hungry spirit, batters now have to adapt to the wide variety of breaking balls that pitchers throw, etc. However, the most famous, most persuasive, and most widely accepted theory is probably the one proposed by the late American paleontologist and evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould. I don't want to give a brief outline of the theory here, as it is such a wonderful theory that it would be a shame to only give an outline. Gould has written about it in detail in "Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin”(Harmony Books, New York, 1996), so please read it. You will be moved by his surprising and wonderful analysis, and you will be forced to think about the evolution of life on Earth.

“Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin” by Stephen Jay Gould (Japanese translation version)

Gould was not saying that .400 hitters would never appear in the future, but rather he hoped that one would appear. So, I would like to think about what kind of hitter can achieve a .400 batting average. To do this, I have looked in detail at a total of 13 cases by eight players who have achieved a .400 batting average so far.

A section on .400 hitters on display at the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.

1) Age. Of the 13 times, 11 were achieved in their 20s, and two in their 30s. The average age was 27.6 years old. The youngest player to achieve a .400 batting average was Ted Williams, who was 23 years old (1941). The oldest case was Ty Cobb, who achieved a .400 batting average for the third time at the age of 35 (1922). Another achiever in his 30s was Bill Terry (1930). It may be best to expect batters in their 20s to achieve a batting average of .400.

A plaque honoring Ty Cobb at the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

A plaque honoring Ted Williams at the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

2) There have been three players who throw right-handed and bat right-handed : Nap Lajoie, Harry Heilmann, and Rogers Hornsby. There have been two players who throw left-handed and bat left-handed: George Sisler and Bill Terry. There have been three players who throw right-handed and bat left-handed: Ty Cobb, Joe Jackson and Ted Williams. If we split the numbers into right-handed and left-handed, there were six right-handed and two left-handed. Many right-handed players have achieved a .400 batting average, but since there are more right-handed players in the major leagues, this may not mean much. It may be better to think that whether a player is right-handed or left-handed, or whether he bats right-handed or left-handed, has nothing to do with a .400 batting average.

3) If you divide the number of at-bats by the number of strikeouts, you can see how many at-bats a player strikes out at. All of the major league batting average leaders have a number over 4. In other words, they have never struck out once in four at-bats. All of the triple crown winners have a number over 5. In other words, they have never struck out once in five at-bats. I have independently researched this data, and have already published it in a column titled "Strikeouts and hits" on this website. If you do the same calculation for .400 hitters, you will be surprised at the amazing results. Surprisingly, the lowest number for a .400 hitter, that is, the hitter who strikes out the most, is only 12.5. That was Rogers Hornsby in 1922. If you strike out once in 12 at-bats, you may not be able to become a .400 hitter.

4) In all 13 times, the .400 hitters were ranked in the top 10 in slugging percentage, and seven of those times they were ranked first in slugging percentage. Four of the eight .400 hitters won the Triple Crown ( Nap Lajoie, Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby and Ted Williams), two of whom achieved both the Triple Crown and a .400 batting average in the same season (Nap Lajoie and Rogers Hornsby). In 10 of the 13 times the .400 hitters were ranked in the top 10 in home run rankings, and four of those times they were ranked first. It may be only sluggers who can become .400 hitters.

5) The last one is something you might call the “mystery” of .400 hitters. There is a really strange thing that .400 hitters have in common. That is, all 13 times, a batting average of .400 was achieved by a player on a team that did not win the league championship. In 10 cases, the team was 10 games or more behind the league champion, meaning that the team was completely out of the running for the championship. In the remaining three times, the team was 9 games, 5 games, and 1 game behind the leader, respectively. Only teams that did not win the league championship have produced .400 hitters. This fact may not mean anything. There are many things in this world that seem to have meaning but actually have no meaning. But if there is some meaning to this fact, I would like you to think carefully for yourself about what it could be.

( If I’ve made a mistake or left out something important, please let me know. I’ll try to make corrections or additions.)