Two Superstars in 2025 : Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani
- Makio Mukai
- Oct 17
- 7 min read
It's fair to say that Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the two most representative superstars in Major League Baseball today. These two players performed remarkably well this year during the 2025 regular season, though both also had their share of disappointments. This time, I'd like to look back on their accomplishments and disappointments.
(A) Home runs.
Judge hit 53 home runs, and Ohtani 55. Both players also achieved the feat of hitting 50 or more home runs in two consecutive years, making them only the sixth and seventh players in Major League history to achieve this feat. The previous five players were Babe Ruth, Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Alex Rodriguez. Looking at these five names, did you notice anything interesting about Judge and Ohtani's record of hitting 50 or more home runs in two consecutive years? That is, Judge is the first right-handed batter to achieve this feat, with no suspicion of steroid use. Ohtani is the third left-handed batter to do so, but the first left-handed hitting and right-handed throwing player to do so. Some may wonder why such things are interesting, but I am very interested in the differences between left-handed and right-handed batters, and the differences in handedness. I plan to publish a column on this website in the future that explains the reasons in detail.
Despite both Judge and Ohtani hitting 50 or more home runs for the second consecutive year, neither of them led the league in home runs this year, finishing second.
Some fans seem to be disappointed that Judge could have led the league if he had not missed games due to injury. ...Cal Raleigh, the American League's home run leader, played in 159 games and had 705 plate appearances. Judge, who is second, played in 152 games and had 679 plate appearances.
There are also fans who are disappointed about "something" about Ohtani. What’s more, a considerable number of fans are disappointed. It's probably fair to say that all Ohtani fans in Japan are disappointed by that "something." That "something" is that with two games remaining in the regular season, Ohtani was just two homers behind Kyle Schwarber, the National League's home run leader, but he didn't play in that game. Ohtani played in the final game of the regular season the following day and hit a home run, narrowing the gap to Schwarber by one. If he had played the previous day, he might have tied for first place or even taken the lead.
However, I think fans of Judge and Ohtani should accept that it was only natural that they didn't reach the top. There's a reason for that: AB/HR. This is the number of at-bats (AB) divided by the number of home runs (HR), and it tells us the average number of at-bats it takes to hit one home run. The lowest AB/HR ratio in the American League this year was Cal Raleigh's 9.93, followed by Judge's 10.21. The lowest ratio in the National League was Kyle Schwarber's 10.79, followed by Ohtani's 11.11. This means that in both leagues, the players with the most home runs also had the lowest AB/HR ratios, meaning they took the fewest average at-bats to hit one home run. This is a perfectly reasonable result.
Here, I would like to introduce some useful data. Judge has led the league in home runs three times (2017, 2022, 2024), and in each of those years, he also had the lowest AB/HR ratio in the league. Ohtani has led the league in home runs twice (2023, 2024), and in each of those years, he also had the lowest AB/HR ratio in the league. Knowing this data, fans may find it even more natural that neither of them led the league in home runs this year.
(B) Stolen Bases
Judge stole 12 bases this year. This is the third time he's had double-digit stolen bases, following 16 in 2022 and 10 in 2024. Such a record wouldn't be particularly noteworthy in the major leagues, and fans likely aren't particularly expecting him to steal bases.
Meanwhile, Ohtani stole 20 bases this year. This is his seventh time with double-digit stolen bases in the eight years since his major league debut, and third after 59 in 2024 and 21 in 2021. He also achieved the unprecedented feat of hitting 50 or more home runs and stealing 20 or more bases in two consecutive years. ... Four players have achieved 50 or more home runs and 20 or more stolen bases just once (Willie Mays in 1955, Brady Anderson in 1996, Ken Griffey Jr. in 1998, and Alex Rodriguez in 2007), but Ohtani is the first player to achieve this feat twice.
But I'm dissatisfied. Last year, Ohtani became the first player in Major League history to achieve the 50-50 mark (50 home runs and 50 stolen bases). Regarding this, I wrote a column titled "Shohei Ohtani's 50-50 : Its Historical Significance and His Future Challenges" and published it on this website. My dissatisfaction relates to something I mentioned in that column. Please read that column for details. Here, I will briefly mention that something.
Ohtani had never achieved 40-40 or 30-30, but last year he suddenly achieved 50-50. However, I hope that he will achieve 30-30 multiple times so that even 100 years from now, everyone will recognize Ohtani as a man worthy of being the first player in Major League history to achieve 50-50. This year, Ohtani was 10 stolen bases short of 30-30. Is this due to the impact of his left shoulder dislocation in last year's World Series? From now on, if Ohtani plays as a two-way player rather than solely as a hitter, achieving 30-30 may become even more difficult. Even so, I, as an Ohtani fanatic, hope to see Ohtani achieve 30-30 multiple times.
(C) Strikeouts and Batting Average
This year, Ohtani struck out 187 times, third highest in the league. His AB/SO (number of at-bats divided by number of strikeouts, which tells us the average number of at-bats to strike out once. The higher this value, the less likely a batter is to strike out) is 3.27. This is clearly worse than last year. Last year, in 2024, he struck out 162 times, ranking 15th in the league, with an AB/SO of 3.93. This change roughly corresponds to the change in his batting average. Last year, Ohtani's batting average was .310, second in the league, but this year it has dropped to .282, ranking 13th in the league.
I previously published a column on this website titled "Strikeouts and Hits." In it, I wrote that in the modern Major League Baseball, which began in 1901, all players with the highest batting average in each league had an AB/SO of over 4. In other words, if you strike out once every four at-bats, you can't be the top batting average player. Ohtani's AB/SO of 3.93 last year was his personal best since his Major League debut, and it was also his best batting average and batting ranking. Last year, he was second in batting average, just .004 off the leader, and his AB/SO of 3.93 was just shy of 4.00, so this is a reasonable result. However, with an AB/SO like this year, it may be difficult to rank high in batting average.
Meanwhile, Judge's 160 strikeouts this year rank him 11th in the league. While not as many as Ohtani, his strikeout numbers are still high. His AB/SO of 3.38 isn't much different from Ohtani's 3.27, meaning he strikes out more than once every four at-bats. And yet, Judge had the best batting average in the league this year! This is the first time in modern Major League history that a player has led the batting average with an AB/SO below 4. So, why is Judge, who has so many strikeouts, able to lead the batting average? I think it's difficult to clearly explain this.
From here on, this may be comprehensible only to those familiar with the latest Major League Baseball stats. So, if you're not familiar with that sort of thing, please ignore what I write next.
I thought that BABIP might be the key to explaining why Judge, who strikes out so much, has the highest batting average, so I looked into it. Judge's batting average this year is .331, the best in the league, and his BABIP is also .376, the best in the league. Judge's BABIP has improved every year, and his batting average has improved accordingly. For example, four years ago in 2021, his BABIP was .322, ranking 16th in the league, and his batting average was .287, ranking 13th. Compare this to his batting average, batting average ranking, and BABIP this year, and the difference is clear, even though his 158 strikeouts and AB/SO of 3.48 in 2021 are not significantly different from this year.
Incidentally, Ohtani's BABIP this year was .315, ranking 17th in the league. This year, there was not much difference between Ohtani and Judge's strikeout count and AB/SO, but there was a big difference in their BABIP. And there was a big difference in their batting averages and batting average ranking.
So why is Judge's BABIP so good that it's number one in the league? Do Barrel/PA % and Barrel/BBE % have anything to do with it?
In 2021, Judge's Barrel/PA% and Barrel/BBE% were not the best in the league, but from 2022 onwards, both of him have been the best in the league. However, because these two metrics include home runs, hitters with a lot of home runs will rank high even if their batting average or BABIP is not good. For example, this year Ohtani's batting average, batting average ranking, and BABIP ranking were not good, but he hit a lot of home runs, so his Barrel/PA% and Barrel/BBE% are both the best in the league. From now on, isn't it necessary to properly investigate Barrel% in conjunction with BABIP?
If anyone can clearly explain why Judge was able to lead the batting average this year despite striking out so much, I'd love to hear it.
( If I’ve made a mistake or left out something important, please let me know. I’ll try to make corrections or additions.)