Will Shohei Ohtani be able to hit numerous home runs again?
- 4 days ago
- 6 min read
This year, 2026, Shohei Ohtani's low home run count has become a major topic of discussion in both Japan and the US.
In 2024, Ohtani hit a league-leading 54 home runs, and in 2025, he hit a career-high 55 home runs, ranking second in the league. It's fair to say that everyone recognized Ohtani as a hitter capable of hitting many home runs. However, as of the end of May 2026, Ohtani’s home run count is only 10. If he continues at this pace, he will finish the season with 27 home runs, which is half of the number he hit the year before last, or last year.
Is this drastic decrease in home runs due to the fact that, unlike the year before last or last year, he has been consistently playing as a two-way player since the start of the season, as many people are saying? Will he be unable to hit more than 50 home runs if he continues as a two-way player? Would he be able to hit more than 50 home runs if he stopped being a two-way player? Whether he plays as a two-way player or not, is it impossible for him to hit more than 50 home runs anymore?
No one can say for sure whether playing as a two-way player is affecting his hitting, and if so, to what extent. Ohtani himself denies that playing as a two-way player is affecting his hitting.
So, this time, I'd like to consider whether Ohtani can hit 50 or more home runs again, based solely on his batting statistics.
Let's compare Ohtani's batting statistics this year (as of the end of May) with those from last year.
AB | HIT | HR | AB/HR | AVG | |
2025 | 611 | 172 | 55 | 11.1 | .282 |
2026 | 207 | 58 | 10 | 20.7 | .280 |
(AB: at bat, HIT: hit, HR: home run, AB/HR: at-bats required to hit one home run, AVG: batting average)
Although his batting average this year is only .002 lower than last year, meaning his hit frequency is almost the same, the number of at-bats required to hit one home run has worsened to 20.7. Does this trend in batting average and AB/HR suggest that he may never again be able to hit more than 50 home runs?
Now, let's compare Ohtani's trend with that of other players who have hit more than 50 home runs.
In Major League Baseball history, only 34 players, including Ohtani, have ever hit 50 or more home runs in a single season. Let's look at 27 of these players who have already retired.
The following shows the changes in AB/HR and batting average for all 27 players in the year they last hit 50 or more home runs and the following year (the year they started to be unable to hit 50 or more home runs again).
AB/HR | AVG | |
Babe Ruth | 9.9→10.8 | .323 →.345 |
Hack Wilson | 10.4 →30.4 | .356 →.261 |
Jimmie Foxx | 11.3 →13.3 | .349 →.360 |
Hank Greenberg | 9.6 →15.2 | .315 →.312 |
Johnny Mize | 11.5 →14.0 | .302 →.289 |
Ralph Kiner | 10.2 →11.6 | .310 →.272 |
Willie Mays | 10.7 →14.9 | .317 →.288 |
Mickey Mantle | 9.5 →12.6 | .317 →.321 |
Roger Maris | 9.7 →17.9 | .269 →.256 |
George Foster | 11.8 →15.1 | .320 →.281 |
Cecil Fielder | 11.2 →14.2 | .277 →.261 |
Albert Belle | 10.5 →15.8 | .317 →.311 |
Brady Anderson | 11.6→32.8 | .297 →.288 |
Mark McGwire | 8.0→7.4 | .278→.305 |
Ken Griffey Jr. | 11.3→12.6 | .284→.285 |
Greg Vaughn | 11.5 →12.2 | .272 →.245 |
Sammy Sosa | 9.0→11.3 | .328→.288 |
Alex Rodriguez | 10.8→14.6 | .314→.302 |
Luis Gonzalez | 10.7 →18.7 | .325 →.288 |
Barry Bonds | 6.5 → 8.8 | .328 → .370 |
Jim Thome | 9.2 → 12.3 | .304 → .266 |
Andruw Jones | 11.5 → 13.8 | .263 → .262 |
Ryan Howard | 10.0 → 11.3 | .313 → .268 |
David Ortiz | 10.3 → 15.7 | .287 → 332 |
Prince Fielder | 11.5 → 17.3 | .288 → .276 |
Jose Bautista | 10.5 → 11.9 | .268 → .302 |
Chris Davis | 11.0 → 17.3 | .286 → .196 |
Of the 27 players, 15 saw their batting average drop by 0.01 or more, while 12 saw their average drop by less than 0.01 or even increase. Therefore, it's impossible to say that a player who hit 50 or more home runs in a given year will never be able to hit 50 or more home runs again based on his batting average the following year. Conversely, the fact that Ohtani's batting average has barely declined doesn't mean we can make optimistic predictions.
The AB/HR value in the year following the last year a player hit 50 or more home runs varies considerably. Therefore, a change in AB/HR doesn't necessarily indicate a high probability of never hitting 50 or more home runs again. However, only two players have seen their AB/HR worsen to over 20 (Hack Wilson and Brady Anderson). So, while Ohtani's AB/HR ratio has worsened to 20.7, it doesn't necessarily mean he'll never be able to hit more than 50 home runs again, but Ohtani’s deterioration in AB/HR is quite severe compared to other players and puts him in the minority.
In summary, while it's impossible to definitively predict whether Ohtani will ever hit over 50 home runs again, it's safe to say the prediction is pessimistic.
However, we still need to examine the most important examples.
Of the 27 players listed above, nine had more than one season in which they hit 50 or more home runs (Babe Ruth 4 times, Jimmie Foxx 2 times, Ralph Kiner 2 times, Willie Mays 2 times, Mickey Mantle 2 times, Mark McGwire 4 times, Ken Griffey Jr. 2 times, Sammy Sosa 4 times, Alex Rodriguez 3 times). Of these nine, three (Mark McGwire, Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa) had consecutive years with 50 or more home runs, meaning there were no years with fewer than 50 home runs between years with 50 or more. The remaining six (Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Ralph Kiner, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez) had years in which they hit fewer than 50 home runs after years with 50 or more home runs, but still managed to hit 50 or more home runs again. The data from these six players is very useful in considering whether Ohtani can hit 50 or more home runs in a season again.
Of these six players, five never had a year with AB/HR exceeding 20. Mickey Mantle hit 52 home runs in 1956 and 54 again in 1961, and his AB/HR was 17.5 in 1959 when he hit 31 home runs. This is the worst AB/HR among these five players
So, who is the remaining one? Actually, the data from this one player provides a promising example for Ohtani's future. It's Willie Mays' data.
HR | AB/HR | AVG | |
1955 | 51 | 11.4 | .319 |
1956 | 36 | 16.1 | .296 |
1957 | 35 | 16.9 | .333 |
1958 | 29 | 20.7 | .347 |
1959 | 34 | 16.9 | .313 |
1960 | 29 | 20.5 | .319 |
1961 | 40 | 14.3 | .308 |
1962 | 49 | 12.7 | .304 |
1963 | 38 | 15.7 | .314 |
1964 | 47 | 12.3 | .296 |
1965 | 52 | 10.7 | .317 |
1966 | 37 | 14.9 | .288 |
Mays had two years where his AB/HR exceeded 20 after a year with over 50 home runs, yet he still managed to hit over 50 home runs again. Comparing his batting average in those two years with over 20 AB/HR to his batting average in those two years with over 50 home runs, there was no difference in one year, and his average increased in the other.
While Willie Mays is the only player to have hit over 50 home runs again after having a year with over 20 AB/HR following a year with over 50 home runs, the fact that he's one such player is a promising example for Ohtani's future. Furthermore, as of the end of May this year, Ohtani's batting average is almost unchanged from the previous year, which also seems similar to Mays's situation. ...Am I overthinking it?
In the years Mays' AB/HR ratio exceeded 20 (1958 and 1960), it doesn't seem like he was suffering from fatigue or any physical problems, nor was he in a batting slump. In 1958, he was batting well, even competing for the top spot in batting average until the final game of the season (actually, he was second in the league, .003 behind the leader). In 1960, he even led the league in hits. It seems there was some kind of technical problem specifically with hitting home runs.
I secretly believe that Ohtani's home run numbers have drastically decreased this year not because of the effects of being a two-way player or a decline in his batting ability, but because there's some kind of technical problem specifically with hitting home runs (it would be bad for me, an amateur, to publicly state what that technical problem is). I believe that once that technical problem is resolved, he will surely start hitting over 50 home runs a year again, just like Willie Mays.
(If I’ve made a mistake or left out something important, please let me know. I’ll try to make corrections or additions.)