Shohei Ohtani's Future : I Fear That He and the Dodgers May Have Made a Mistake.
This column takes a highly critical stance toward Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers' leadership. It may well offend or anger not only Ohtani and the Dodgers' front office but also some of their fans. Some might even feel the urge to shout at me, "Who do you think you are—an amateur spouting off like that!" I am fully aware of these risks, yet there is something I feel compelled to say—speaking both as a devoted Major League Baseball fan of 71 years and as a medical doctor—a pathologist who diagnoses disease by observing the physical form of the human body and examining the form of human cells under a microscope.
Before I dive into the main topic, there are a few things I must clarify:
1) I have no way of knowing the precise nature or severity of the inflammation in Shohei Ohtani's left knee and right biceps—conditions he dealt with this year. Consequently, much of what I say is necessarily based on his look while pitching and his batting form.
2) I am a passionate, die-hard fan of Shohei Ohtani. Those who have followed my previous columns on this website will likely understand this.
Furthermore, I have a deep affection for the Dodgers organization. After all, the Dodgers were the team where Hideo Nomo—the trailblazer for the many Japanese players who have since followed into Major League Baseball—began his career. In total, 12 Japanese players, from Nomo to Roki Sasaki, have been part of the Dodgers organization.
3) I also have something to say regarding the Dodgers' leadership.
First, there is manager Dave Roberts. He was born in Japan (Okinawa), and his mother is Japanese. As a Japanese person myself, I feel a sense of affinity for him and am quite fond of him. I was genuinely moved by his famous "The Steal"—executed during Game 4 of the 2004 American League Championship Series when he was a player for the Red Sox—and I still remember it vividly today.
Next, there is Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers' President of Baseball Operations. Dedicated Japanese fans of Major League Baseball are well aware that he has visited Japan many times, personally observing Japanese players to evaluate their abilities. This sincere approach toward the Japanese baseball world is something that Japanese MLB fans truly appreciate, making it impossible not to hold him in high regard. Furthermore, he is always very courteous when responding to the Japanese media; through these interactions, I have learned about his methods for managing the organization and how he treats his staff—all of which has left a strong impression on me, leading me to conclude that he is a truly remarkable individual.
As you can probably tell by now, the harsh things I'm about to write are not because I dislike Ohtani or the Dodgers. On the contrary, it is precisely because I am so fond of both Ohtani and the Dodgers—and because I want them to achieve great success—that I am sharing these thoughts.
Now, having provided that rather long introduction, let's get to the main topic.
I would like to share, with complete honesty, some observations I made while watching Shohei Ohtani play as a two-way player this year.
1) When Ohtani was on the mound, it often appeared to me that he was sweating unusually heavily right from the first inning, frequently taking deep, sigh-like breaths. Additionally, there were many instances where he seemed to be keeping a close eye on the pitch clock, releasing his pitches just before the time limit expired—a behavior that suggested he might have been trying to manage or alleviate his fatigue. In short, it seemed to me that Ohtani was struggling when playing as a pitcher.
2) There was also something that caught my attention regarding his batting: he was not using his signature batting form. His unique batting form possesses some remarkable qualities—most notably, his ability to execute a perfect "inside-out" swing. This allows him to "carry" the ball on his bat and drive it a great distance, rather than simply striking it to send it rebounding away. Very few Major League players are capable of this kind of hitting—it is virtually non-existent among right-handed throwers who bat left-handed, and it is also quite rare even among left-handed throwers who bat left-handed.
3) Even so, Ohtani was posting excellent numbers as a pitcher (leading the league in ERA). As a hitter, while I was concerned that his home run total was significantly lower than in previous years, his OPS remained among the best in the league. I believed that his lack of home runs was not due to fatigue from his "two-way" role, but rather a technical issue with his hitting—and that once this issue was resolved, he would return to hitting home runs in high volume, just as he had before. I wrote about this in a column for this website back in June, titled "Will Shohei Ohtani be able to hit numerous home runs again?"
4) However, from August onward, my perspective on Ohtani shifted significantly. This change was prompted by his decision to stop pitching due to inflammation in his left knee and his right upper arm. According to reports reaching Japan, Ohtani began experiencing discomfort in his left knee in early June and in his right upper arm in early July—both attributed to inflammation. At that point, I came to the following conclusion: perhaps the signs of struggle he showed while pitching, as well as the absence of his characteristic hitting form were largely the result of fatigue stemming from his dual role as both a pitcher and a hitter. Furthermore, one could argue that the inflammation in his left knee and right biceps stems from the strain of continuing to play as a two-way player. Regardless of whether that theory is correct, he should not be playing while suffering from inflammation in his left knee and right biceps. As soon as the inflammation was identified, he should have been placed on the Injured List (IL) to allow the affected areas to rest and receive proper treatment. In fact, he should have written off the remainder of this season. Failing to do so risks allowing the inflammation to become chronic—a scenario that could potentially hinder his ability to perform at his best in future seasons. It is critical to treat the inflammation during the acute phase; allowing it to become chronic is dangerous, as it could significantly extend the recovery time, lead to structural changes or deformities in the affected tissue, or result in extensive scarring and hardening. He should have been placed on the IL back in July to rest and undergo treatment.
5) Instead, while Ohtani stopped pitching, he continued to play as a batter. To me, this appeared to be a major error in judgment on his part. Continuing to play was unlikely to yield any significant offensive results and would only serve to prolong the inflammation. I found it baffling that the Dodgers' leadership did not stop him from playing as a batter; this, too, struck me as a serious misstep by the team's management.
6) Subsequently, Ohtani's performance as a batter was dismal—at times, it felt as though he was merely making a spectacle of himself. This approach could jeopardize his ability to play effectively not just for the rest of this season, but in future seasons as well.
Eventually, the team's leadership did pull him from the lineup to rest, but because Ohtani claimed his condition had "improved significantly," they allowed him to return to action after only a short break. Even so, as Ohtani was unable to hit effectively, he was finally placed on the IL in early September. At that point, I wrote another column about him for this website, titled "Shohei Ohtani and the Daruma Doll." My argument was that the move to the IL was far too late—it should have happened back in July. I contended that he should not have played in any further regular-season games, nor should he have participated in the postseason; there was simply no way he could perform at his usual level.
7) Yet, Ohtani returned for the final stretch of the regular season and also played in the postseason. I believe this was a major error on the part of both Ohtani and the Dodgers' leadership. It was obvious that he could not possibly achieve satisfactory results, and furthermore, it risked delaying the healing of his injuries—potentially causing long-term harm to his future.
As expected, Ohtani's postseason performance was dismal. In 26 at-bats, he posted a .192 batting average and a .631 OPS. He struck out 10 times—an abysmal rate of one strikeout every 2.6 at-bats. It was entirely predictable that he would struggle, as it appeared that the inflammation in his left knee and right biceps had not fully healed.
Considering his future, he should not have participated in the postseason at all.
8) Both Ohtani and Andrew Friedman have indicated that Ohtani intends to continue as a two-way player next season. I fear this is another serious mistake, as it is highly likely to lead to the same disastrous results we saw this year. In the interest of his long-term future, I believe he should step away from two-way play for at least the coming year—focusing exclusively on hitting—to see how his physical condition responds. ...I believe there is a possibility that, even if he focuses exclusively on hitting next year, he may not be able to perform at the same level as before—this is because the inflammation in his left knee and right biceps has persisted for too long.
While everything I've written so far is merely my own opinion, I realize that what I have written is quite presumptuous and perhaps disrespectful toward Ohtani and the Dodgers' leadership. That said, if I happen to be wrong and Ohtani goes on to deliver a spectacular performance next year, I would be absolutely delighted.
As a final aside, I'd like to mention Josue De Paula, who was called up from the minor leagues to serve as the designated hitter in Ohtani's place when Ohtani was placed on the IL.
I believe he is a fantastic hitter with a rare, exceptional talent—the kind you rarely come across. In my view, he shouldn't have been sent back to the minors once Ohtani returned from the IL and the team should have found a way to keep him in the lineup throughout the postseason.
Many point to his performance while filling in as the DH—10 hits in 31 at-bats, a .323 batting average, and a 1.081 OPS—as evidence of his brilliance. They are right, of course, but his true greatness lies elsewhere. Consider this: his strikeout (SO) total was only five while drawing 11 walks (Bases on Balls: BB). A BB/SO ratio of 2.2 is remarkably impressive. This alone proves that his stellar performance was no fluke or mere beginner's luck. Furthermore, it is extraordinary that he maintained an OPS over 1.0 despite hitting only one home run—a feat usually associated with high home-run totals. Although he only hit one home run, he also recorded three doubles and a triple; in other words, half of his 10 hits were extra-base hits. That is truly remarkable.
He will likely play as a regular next season—and he certainly should. I am genuinely excited to see what kind of numbers he will put up over the course of a full season.
(If I've made a mistake or left out something important, please let me know. I'll try to make corrections or additions.)